Dominique Strauss-Kahn attends Manhattan Criminal Court with his lawyer, Benjamin Brafman, on May 16, 2011. By AFP/Getty Images.The head of a powerful international institution is about to announce his candidacy for the French presidency. All the polls show him well ahead of the unpopular incumbent. The gilded salons of the Elysée Palace seem within his grasp—until a stunning event derails his presidential hopes and his political career: incredibly, improbably, he is accused of attempting to rape a New York hotel maid and is arrested aboard an airplane shortly before takeoff.
It could be the plot of an international thriller if it were not true. At least the above details are true—Dominique Strauss-Kahn, 62, the dashing silver-haired director of the International Monetary Fund, sits in a New York prison cell after a Manhattan Criminal Court judge denied his bail request on Monday. He faces up to 74 years if convicted on charges of attempted rape, sexual abuse, and illegal imprisonment. Those are the facts. What is less certain—at least until it is proven in court—is whether the astounding accusations against him are wholly or even partially true.
If Strauss-Kahn is guilty as charged, no one could condone such outrageous behavior or such a baffling lapse of judgment. He would deservedly become not only a political outcast in France but the inmate of a U.S. prison for years to come. But you don’t have to be a knee-jerk conspiracy buff to entertain the notion that Strauss-Kahn just may be the victim of a set-up. If this were indeed the plot of a thriller, in fact, that would be the most intriguing and most likely scenario. And the key question would be this: who profits from this character’s downfall?
In the real life arena of French politics, the most obvious beneficiary is incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy, increasingly unpopular in the polls and likely headed to a humiliating third-place finish in the May 2012 elections. Another beneficiary is Marine Le Pen, the newly named head of the far-right anti-immigrant National Front Party, who polls were placing in second place behind Strauss-Kahn in the presidential contest. Also standing to gain from Strauss-Kahn’s disgrace are his Socialist rivals who hope to replace him as their party’s standard bearer: former party chief François Hollande, current leader Martine Aubry, defeated 2007 candidate Ségolène Royal, and former prime minister Laurent Fabius. Other beneficiaries might be found among those who oppose Strauss-Kahn’s policies at the head of the IMF, where he has pushed a lenient bailout plan for debt-strapped Greece.
If I were writing a thriller along these lines, I would find a plotter among the above “suspects” who pays a 32-year-old African immigrant hotel maid to blow the whistle on this bothersome Frenchman. The news that an activist in Sarkozy’s conservative UMP party was the first to announce Strauss-Kahn’s arrest via Twitter just minutes after it happened does raise unsettling questions.
Even bigger questions emerge when one considers Strauss-Kahn’s position. On the one hand, he is known as the “great seducer” and makes no bones about the fact that he is a womanizer. In 2008 Strauss-Kahn, who is married to French TV journalist Anne Sinclair, admitted to having an affair with a subordinate at the IMF. This week, a young woman emerged with a story of being molested by him during an interview nine years ago. Like Bill Clinton, he is a man with a zipper problem that has in the past outstripped his better judgment. On the other hand, Strauss-Kahn is a man of uncommon intelligence—a former economics professor, ex-finance minister, fluent speaker of multiple foreign languages and, most important, perhaps, an expert chess player. Considering the presidential stakes that were clearly within his reach, is it plausible that he would be cavorting naked through his hotel suite and committing acts of sexual violence on a chambermaid in so public a place as a New York hotel? If he did that, he deserves the severest of punishments. But is it plausible?
French opinion, in any case, has reacted with a mixture of disbelief, shame and outrage. Sarkozy’s spokesman has called for “extraordinary prudence” in discussing the affair. Marine Le Pen is practically gloating over the downfall of her leftist rival. And Strauss-Kahn’s fellow Socialists are mostly taking an innocent-until-proven-guilty line. As for the general French public, which shrugged off Strauss-Kahn’s past womanizing antics as par for the course in this sexually liberal society, there would be no tolerance for sexual aggression if those charges are indeed proven. But as Strauss-Kahn awaits his day in court, it appears clear that his chances of even entering the Socialist Party’s primary contest are virtually nil, and his presidential hopes are dashed. If he is the victim of a plot, it was a damn good one. And if not, France has dodged a bullet
In the real life arena of French politics, the most obvious beneficiary is incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy, increasingly unpopular in the polls and likely headed to a humiliating third-place finish in the May 2012 elections. Another beneficiary is Marine Le Pen, the newly named head of the far-right anti-immigrant National Front Party, who polls were placing in second place behind Strauss-Kahn in the presidential contest. Also standing to gain from Strauss-Kahn’s disgrace are his Socialist rivals who hope to replace him as their party’s standard bearer: former party chief François Hollande, current leader Martine Aubry, defeated 2007 candidate Ségolène Royal, and former prime minister Laurent Fabius. Other beneficiaries might be found among those who oppose Strauss-Kahn’s policies at the head of the IMF, where he has pushed a lenient bailout plan for debt-strapped Greece.
If I were writing a thriller along these lines, I would find a plotter among the above “suspects” who pays a 32-year-old African immigrant hotel maid to blow the whistle on this bothersome Frenchman. The news that an activist in Sarkozy’s conservative UMP party was the first to announce Strauss-Kahn’s arrest via Twitter just minutes after it happened does raise unsettling questions.
Even bigger questions emerge when one considers Strauss-Kahn’s position. On the one hand, he is known as the “great seducer” and makes no bones about the fact that he is a womanizer. In 2008 Strauss-Kahn, who is married to French TV journalist Anne Sinclair, admitted to having an affair with a subordinate at the IMF. This week, a young woman emerged with a story of being molested by him during an interview nine years ago. Like Bill Clinton, he is a man with a zipper problem that has in the past outstripped his better judgment. On the other hand, Strauss-Kahn is a man of uncommon intelligence—a former economics professor, ex-finance minister, fluent speaker of multiple foreign languages and, most important, perhaps, an expert chess player. Considering the presidential stakes that were clearly within his reach, is it plausible that he would be cavorting naked through his hotel suite and committing acts of sexual violence on a chambermaid in so public a place as a New York hotel? If he did that, he deserves the severest of punishments. But is it plausible?
French opinion, in any case, has reacted with a mixture of disbelief, shame and outrage. Sarkozy’s spokesman has called for “extraordinary prudence” in discussing the affair. Marine Le Pen is practically gloating over the downfall of her leftist rival. And Strauss-Kahn’s fellow Socialists are mostly taking an innocent-until-proven-guilty line. As for the general French public, which shrugged off Strauss-Kahn’s past womanizing antics as par for the course in this sexually liberal society, there would be no tolerance for sexual aggression if those charges are indeed proven. But as Strauss-Kahn awaits his day in court, it appears clear that his chances of even entering the Socialist Party’s primary contest are virtually nil, and his presidential hopes are dashed. If he is the victim of a plot, it was a damn good one. And if not, France has dodged a bullet
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